Year End Re-cap

By on October 6, 2006

Originally published in January 1999:

INDEXES ON 12/31/98

DJIA 9,181.43

S&P 500 1,229.39

NASDAQ 2,192.70

Editorial

The year has come to a close and it was a wild one compared to the 5 previous years. The gains in the “Real World” portfolios both exceeded 20%. For the fourth year in a row the aggressive portfolio gained more than 25%, which is something I never would have forecasted. The year looks like a roller coaster ride if you look at a chart of the major averages (S&P 500 and DJIA). An incredible number of signals were generated between July and November (7). Not all of the moves can be considered screaming successes. We sold Microsoft at 105 (it’s 139 now). However, we bought it at 89, so it wasn’t a complete failure. I considered purchasing Ebay when the Tactical Timing System gave a buy signal on October 8. It was around $30 then and subsequently rose 1,000% in the following 2 1/2 months. I think I’m going to be ill. Carnival and Royal Caribbean Cruises, two of my favorites, dropped by 50% in a couple of months and then rose by 100% in the next couple. The experts at Merrill Lynch lowered their rating on Carnival after it had dropped from $43 to $25 a share in late summer. Now it’s at $48. That’s a lot like closing the gate after the horse has left the barn. These are the guys making the megabucks and charging outrageous commissions on stock trades. Charles Schwab Company recently surpassed them in market capitalization so there is some justice in the world.

The market doesn’t look very healthy to me. There is too much speculation occurring in the Internet related sector. When this house of cards collapses, as it surely will, investor fortitude will be severely tested. We could see another 20% drop in the averages due to the gambling mentality infecting a large number of individuals and institutions as they scramble to get onboard and later overboard.

Website to Have a New Address

I’m close to ending my relationship with AOL after signing up with Time Warner’s Road Runner cable modem service (a Christmas gift from my wife). This newsletter will soon be unavailable at its old website http://members.aol.com/stocksystm. I’ve reserved website space at 3 free services: Geocities, The Globe and Tripod. The respective addresses are:

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/9461/

http://members.tripod.com/~Stocksystm

http://members.theglobe.com/stocksystm/

I will be testing all 3 sites for speed of loading and responsiveness and narrow it down to one. The one I choose will be a link at the other two sites, so adding any of them to your favorite places will lead you to the chosen ground.

Good Financially Related Sites

If you’re interested in how the market is doing after normal trading hours you can see how the S&P and other futures are trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Site http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Visit http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u for an up-to-date look at the foreign markets.

For stock screens based on several of the most popular stock picking strategies check out http://members.aol.com/baccom/screens.html

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