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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
What the "Few Who Got it Right" Currently Think
Normxxx, at his “ruminates” blog, posted a March 14th article by Howard Gold of Marketwatch. Highlighted are the recent views of Gary Shilling, Larry McMillan, Sandy Jajeda, and Dan Sullivan who have demonstrated above average accuracy in their predictions as of late.
Gary Shilling expects the market to bottom at around the S&P 500 level of 600 this summer.
Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis Corp., says to stay out of the market or be short until the VIX spikes back over 60 and comes back down (a sign of capitulation).
Sandy Jajeda, chief market strategist for ODL Markets in London, thinks the bear market could hit bottom between the years 2010 and 2012. “5300 is the most probable low,” he says. But Fibonacci and Elliot Wave analysis— tools used by some technical analysts— may point toward 3700-3800 as the ultimate bottom.
Dan Sullivan, “The Chartist,” is looking for a 15%-20% rally that would take us into the 800s on the S&P 500 (we have since gotten there), but then he says we’ll retest 676. Sullivan stated, “I think it’s a bear-market rally, so I’m advising subscribers to sell into the rally [or stay on the sidelines].”
Source:
http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2009/03/few-who-got-it-right.html
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