What the "Few Who Got it Right" Currently Think

By on March 28, 2009

Normxxx, at his “ruminates” blog, posted a March 14th article by Howard Gold of Marketwatch. Highlighted are the recent views of Gary Shilling, Larry McMillan, Sandy Jajeda, and Dan Sullivan who have demonstrated above average accuracy in their predictions as of late.

Gary Shilling expects the market to bottom at around the S&P 500 level of 600 this summer.

Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis Corp., says to stay out of the market or be short until the VIX spikes back over 60 and comes back down (a sign of capitulation).

Sandy Jajeda, chief market strategist for ODL Markets in London, thinks the bear market could hit bottom between the years 2010 and 2012. “5300 is the most probable low,” he says. But Fibonacci and Elliot Wave analysis— tools used by some technical analysts— may point toward 3700-3800 as the ultimate bottom.

Dan Sullivan, “The Chartist,” is looking for a 15%-20% rally that would take us into the 800s on the S&P 500 (we have since gotten there), but then he says we’ll retest 676. Sullivan stated, “I think it’s a bear-market rally, so I’m advising subscribers to sell into the rally [or stay on the sidelines].”



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