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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
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ViacomCBS Re-initiated
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- Posted March 26, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, warned...
- Posted March 18, 2021
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Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
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- Posted March 5, 2021
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
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- Posted March 3, 2021
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ViacomCBS Sold
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- Posted February 19, 2021
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iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
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- Posted January 20, 2021
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Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Value Investor Scott Black Makes the Case for Investing in Oracle
Black said he just spoke with the management of Oracle last week. “When you look at the fundamental business which is the software, it will grow at a 6 or 7 percent clip even in a slow growth IT type of environment,” Black stated. “You back out the cash which is over $3 a share you have about $29 1/2 net with $2.90 of earnings in May of next year; its a 10 PE,” Black added.
Black addressed concerns regarding Salesforce.com and Workday in the cloud, but touted Oracle’s full service product and said they were not behind with the cycle times for releases being comparable to their competitors. Salesforce.com is selling for over 100 times next year’s expected earnings and Workday’s PE is infinite, Black said.
Oracle generates $10 billion in free cash which is dollar for dollar with earnings, and its an excellent, well-run company, Black said. ORCL is ridiculously cheap and doesn’t get much respect, Black added.
Black talked about the difficulty identifing value stocks with the market trading near its all-time highs. He said they’re looking for companies with high returns on equity and sustainable earnings power, while trading at no more than a 12 PE.
Another stock mentioned during the interview was Express Scripts (ESRX).
When asked it he was calling a top in the market, Black responded, “we’re more like Warren Buffett, we’re not smart enough to know if the market is going up or down.”
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