Upcoming Stock Market Seasonal Tendencies
Several strong seasonal tendencies will be tested in the upcoming month and quarters. Since 1950 April has, on average, been the strongest month of the year with an average gain over 2% as depicted in a chart below. According to the data April is positive 64% of the time.
Looking at the presidential cycle indicates the upcoming two-quarter period is the weakest in the four year cycle (chart below from J. Lyons Fund Management).
Could we be about to witness a strong April followed by a disastrous May-September period? Place your bets.