Upcoming Stock Market Seasonal Tendencies

By on March 31, 2014

Several strong seasonal tendencies will be tested in the upcoming month and quarters. Since 1950 April has, on average, been the strongest month of the year with an average gain over 2% as depicted in a chart below. According to the data April is positive 64% of the time.

S&P 500 Seasonal Data

Looking at the presidential cycle indicates the upcoming two-quarter period is the weakest in the four year cycle (chart below from J. Lyons Fund Management).

Stock Market presidential cycle quarterly returns

Could we be about to witness a strong April followed by a disastrous May-September period? Place your bets.


  1. Sexiest White

    April 6, 2014 at 4:35 pm

    The odds of collapse have increased with the recent weakness in high flyers being most evident. Panic has yet to be experienced, but its arrival is imminent.

  2. Richard Rasch

    April 7, 2014 at 12:00 pm

    The first chart indicates an early stage of dementia. Within a few years, the basic picture editing tools will be abandoned in favor of handwritten notations. Soon thereafter, we’ll see financial data/analysis combined with pancake recipes to produce “profound” insights.

  3. Jesco

    April 13, 2014 at 4:00 pm

    Please crash already!

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