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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
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- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
The Pros of Investing in Emerging Markets
Ben Steverman at Business Week has penned an article about the merits of investing in the stocks of emerging market economies despite the obvious risks. Steverman cites Allan Conway, head of emerging market equities at Schroders, who lists the advantages as:
1. No credit crunch or excessive levels of debt in most emerging economies.
2. Economic fundamentals. Because of large reserves, nations like China don’t need to borrow to fund their stimulus packages.
3. It’s not true that China and other countries are unduly reliant on exports to developed nations. Domestic demand has been a big contributor to growth, and so have exports to other emerging nations.
4. Stocks are very cheap in emerging economies.
5. Most global investors, spooked by last fall’s market meltdown, are very much underweight emerging markets. There is money waiting on the sidelines.
6. But the main argument has to do with economic growth: Conway believes emerging economies will grow 3 to 4 percent faster than developed nations. “This three to four percent growth [advantage] will continue into the future, irrespective of whether this is a recession or depression and how long it lasts,” Conway says. Even in a worst-case scenario, growth in places like China should remain positive.
Source:
http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2009/02/emerging_market_1.html
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