federal reserve

Peter Boockvar - Miller TabakOne of the most anticipated events in the world of investing has been the nearly universal opinion that bonds will collapse in price as yields move up. Peter Boockvar, strategist at Miller Tabak, and Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, recently debated the notion of a bond bubble.

Bernstein said the economy is giving “glass half empty” indications with a bad durable goods orders number, unemployment claims ticking up a bit, while we’ve had strong retail sales.

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Pat Dorsey Says Market Doesn’t Need More QE

by Barron Maestro on April 27, 2012

Pat Dorsey - Sanibel Captiva TrustPat Dorsey, Vice Chairman, Director of Research & Strategy, The Sanibel Captiva Trust Company, was on CNBC stating the bullish case for stocks which he claimed have been propelled by their own earnings power. Dorsey was formerly the director of equity research at Morningstar.

Dorsey reminded us that the Fed’s bond buying episodes have been started and stopped in fits and starts and stocks haven’t been “smoked” during any of those times.

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Ned Davis Still in Secular Bear Camp

by Barron Maestro on April 23, 2012

bear marketJeff Sommer, writing for The New York Times, opines about stocks and the economy, which he says are singing different tunes currently. The views of Ned Davis, founder of Ned Davis Research, figure prominently in the piece. Davis has a wide following among money managers, according to Sommer.

While Davis expects stocks to rise over the next six months, he feels the economy has “deep-seated maladies” which bolster his view that equities remain in a secular bear market. Davis has written, “I am concerned about the long-term consequences of the Fed’s zero interest rate and easy credit policies and exploding government deficits.”

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Interview of Bill Miller and Paul McCulley Continued

by Barron Maestro on April 19, 2012

Paul McCulley - PIMCOConsuelo Mack of Wealthtrack continued her interview of Bill Miller and Paul McCulley in Paris. Part one of the interview is available here. The second part of the interview focused on investment risks.

Miller began discussing the notion of “risk on, risk off” which he said was misleading. He said when investors refer to risk, they really mean uncertainty. Miller compared risk to what insurance companies do which is to determine probabilities of accidents and so forth. Miller added that investors deal with the ebb and flow of uncertainty where investors don’t know what the probability of outcomes will be.

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Burton Malkiel Defends the Efficient Market Hypothesis

by Barron Maestro on April 13, 2012

Burton Malkiel - Efficient Market HypothesisCNBC’s Steve Liesman interviewed Princeton University economist Burton Malkiel, author of the excellent book A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Completely Revised and Updated) this morning.

Liesman brought up criticism of the idea of the efficient market because the perception during the financial crisis of 2008 was that markets didn’t work. This implied Malkiel was wrong and markets were not efficient. Malkiel responded, “what efficient markets means is that information gets reflected quickly and you get a tableau of prices that’s very hard to beat.”

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Mark Mobius: Tsunami Won’t Impact Emerging Markets

by Barron Maestro on April 11, 2012

Mark Mobius - Franklin TempletonCNBC’s Becky Quick interviewed Mark Mobius this morning. Mobius is a global investor and emerging markets fund manager, and is considered to be one of the leaders in the industry as he has been involved in these markets for over 40 years (according to Wikipedia).

Quick questioned Mobius on whether this spring season was a tipping point for the markets like it had been in the past couple of years. Mobius responded that he believed we were in pretty good shape for the emerging markets which have outperformed other markets so far this year.

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Bill Miller and Paul McCulley Discuss the Economy, Stocks and Bonds

April 10, 2012

Consuelo Mack recently interviewed Bill Miller and Paul McCulley regarding shifts experienced in the investing arena in recent years. This includes changes at the macro level involving central banks money easing efforts to deal with financial upheavals. Mack stated that many of the monetary authorities efforts have been controversial. Mack said she moderated a panel [...]

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Harry Dent Says the Next Crisis Could Be Put Off Until Next Year

April 5, 2012

CNBC’s Rick Santelli interviewed Harry Dent yesterday regarding his expectations for the stock market and Federal Reserve actions. Dent, founder of H.S. Dent, is the author of several books including The Great Crash Ahead: Strategies for a World Turned Upside Down. Dent began the interview by saying he just told his subscribers to short stocks [...]

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Allen Sinai: Economy is Stronger Than the Fed Thinks

April 5, 2012

Allen Sinai was interviewed by Bloomberg’s Mark Crumpton and Michael McKee regarding the Fed’s March 13th meeting and comments which were released a couple of days ago.   Sinai is the chief global economist at Decision Economics Incorporated. Sinai believes the economy is on the mend with unemployment declining and inflation percolating.  He thinks the Fed’s focus [...]

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The Market is Breaking Out!

March 14, 2012

After see-sawing for weeks stocks took off yesterday, breaking above resistance (Dow 13,000). This looks like a market that is poised to go higher. How much higher is anyone’s guess. The old high’s on the S&P 500 are only about 12% away, so this seems to be within reach before the election. What is making [...]

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