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Byron Wien was on CNBC today providing his outlook and surprise predictions for 2012. According to host Bill Griffeth, Wien got 8 out of 10 predictions correct in 2011 (link).
Wien was too optimistic on the stock market (S&P 500) which he saw rising to 1,500 and too pessimistic on the 10-year government bond (yield above 5%).
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Byron Wien was interviewed by Larry Kudlow this week. He said real GDP numbers of 1% don’t make sense and real business is doing better than that. Wien added, “if earnings come through anywhere near what the analysts are predicting, stocks are really cheap.”
Larry Kudlow asked Wien what he believed the upside for the stock market was.
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Forecasts, which are predictions by another name, have been issued in droves regarding the coming year. Jeff Sommer, of The New York Times, looks at the value of them and discusses the recent predictions of Byron Wien, a very famous forecaster:
Mr. Wien, who has been issuing lists of probable market “surprises” since 1986, says he doesn’t even pretend that he is forecasting the future. He says he is merely suggesting developments that he thinks have a better than 50 percent chance of happening, but that the average investor does not.
Last year, out of 10 such “surprises,” he got only one unequivocally right: new financial services regulations turned out not to be as onerous as many people in the industry had initially feared. Yes, this was a “cynical” appraisal, he said cheerfully. But he was wrong about the markets, which he thought would end up where they started (they rose), and about the economy, which he said would be booming (it is not), and about unemployment, which he said would drop below 9 percent (it has not).
This year, he is again suggesting a very strong economy and a sharp drop in unemployment, but also something new: robust improvement in the housing market. Such notions, he says, “are intended to make people think conceptually, and not incrementally, about the changes that may be ahead.”
Sommers also highlights Laszlo Birinyi’s very bullish outlook:
LASZLO BIRINYI, the veteran market analyst who correctly predicted the onset of the current bull market in early 2009, also says he is wary of traditional forecasting, and favors an approach that is more provocative.
Based on the American bull market’s extraordinary performance so far, he says it has a very long way to run. And so, while he has no forecast for 2011 or 2012, he announced on Tuesday that the S.& P. 500 would reach 2,854 by Sept. 4, 2013. That would be an increase of more than 100 percent.
Should investors take this forecast literally? “No,” Mr. Birinyi said. He added that he had no idea where the market would be on a particular day or month, but that he believes he is right about its direction: “I’d say, people should look at the evidence and think about it, and look at it as an argument, which I think they should take seriously.”
Source: The N.Y. Times
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Byron Wien expects a good year for stocks with the S&P 500 hitting 1500 sometime this year. In this video Wien also discloses some of his other predictions for the coming year.
Here’s a link to the complete list of Wien’s predictions:
CNBC
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Aaron Task interviewed Byron Wien and looked back at a couple of his 10 surprise predictions made 11 months ago. Wien admitted he was too optimistic on the economy back then, but he sees things picking up now. He thinks more government stimulus in the right areas would help, but there isn’t much cooperation in Congress to get what’s needed done.
Wien added that he is struggling to see what is coming ahead.
Source: Yahoo Finance Tech Ticker
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Based on demand from emerging markets, Byron Wien feels commodities have further to go in this move to the upside.
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