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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Steven Leuthold, "I believe there is some game playing going on"
Patrick Kennedy, writing for the Star Tribune, points out that companies have gotten much better about managing earnings expectations.
According to Bloomberg News, 80 percent of Standard & Poor’s 500 companies reporting earnings so far this 3rd quarter earnings season posted positive earnings surprises. Actual earnings exceeded the expectations of analysts, even though the year-over-year comparisons may have been negative. Only 13 percent have reported negative surprises.
In 2008 just 58 percent of the S&P 500 companies reported positive earnings surprises while 32 percent delivered negative surprises. That negative surprise number hadn’t been that high since 4th quarter of 1997, while the positive number hadn’t been that low since the 4th quarter of 2001.
Its gotten so lopsided towards positive surprises that some long-time market watchers are growing skeptical including Steven Leuthold, who doesn’t put a lot of weight on recent guidance figures. “Companies may have been overly conservative on setting expectations,” he said.
Source:
StarTribune.com
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