Some Statistics on This Now Starting to Age Bull Market

By on December 14, 2009

Paul Lim at the N. Y. Times has cited the work of James Stack, Robert Doll, and several others in presenting the current status of this bull market and what the future might hold.

Robert Doll, chief investment officer for global equities at Blackrock, notes that financials, which took a beating during the bear market and bounced off the bottom impressively for the first six months, have been lagging since October. James Stack adds, “as financial stocks are slowing, ‘growth’ areas like technology and consumer discretionary shares are pacing the market.”

Smaller company stocks ran up impressively off the bottom, but lately large company shares have been outperforming. “Since October, the large caps have been dominant,” said Duncan Richardson, chief equity investment officer for Eaton Vance in Boston. In that period, the biggest stocks, based on market capitalization, have gained more than five percent, while small stocks have actually slumped nearly one percent.

The second year of the typical bull market sees large capitalizaion companies outperforming small cap stocks. James T. Swanson, chief investment strategist for MFS Investment Management, notes that in the second years of the last two bull markets, dividend-payers, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Dividend Aristocrats index, have beaten the overall S.& P. 500 by an average of nearly six percentage points.

S&P points out that of 14 bull markets identified since 1921, three did not last two years. So the odds of the current bull extending another year and a half would appear to be good. This bull market is outside the norm because it hasn’t had the typical 10 percent correction within the first 10 months, although there have been three pullbacks of around five percent.


N. Y. Times


Heavy – Collective Soul

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