Don't Miss
Latest News
-
iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to rising...
- Posted March 30, 2021
- 0
-
ViacomCBS Re-initiated
About five weeks ago the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted March 26, 2021
- 0
-
Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, warned...
- Posted March 18, 2021
- 0
-
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF...
- Posted March 5, 2021
- 0
-
Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
Gold and silver mining stocks, along with precious metals prices,...
- Posted March 3, 2021
- 0
-
ViacomCBS Sold
On February 17, 2021, the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted February 19, 2021
- 0
-
iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
Investor euphoria/greed has been elevated with the extension of the...
- Posted January 20, 2021
- 0
Don't Miss Out On These Free Updates!
Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
-
iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
- 0
-
Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
- 0
-
Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
- 12
-
Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
- 8
-
Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
- 7
T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Robert Shiller Warns of Stock Market Risks
Despite recent market weakness and its related turmoil, the Yale University professor warned CNBC’s Becky Quick, “the market is high now.”
Shiller measures valuation utilizing the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio, which consists of the price of index components divided by their 10-year average earnings.
“The CAPE ratio right now is around 25. It’s high,” Shiller stated. The historic average is approximately 17, a level that would correspond with about 11,000 on the Dow and 1,300 on S&P 500. A collapse to those levels would constitute more than a 30 percent bear market.
Shiller said he’s not saying that will happen, just the CAPE ratio serves as a “warning signal.” He also stated it’s possible the market could “go a lot higher” from where it currently stands since the CAPE reached 44 in the year 2000.
When asked whether he had taken his own money out of the stock market, Shiller responded that he had.
The notion suggested in economists Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff’s book Lifecycle Investing: A New, Safe, and Audacious Way to Improve the Performance of Your Retirement Portfolio
that young investors should go on margin should be reconsidered in light of current market valuations according to Shiller.
Back in August 2013, Shiller told CNBC’s Jackie DeAngelis the market bubble could burst at any time (link).
Related Posts