Robert Barbera: Top 10 Trading Partner Data Show China Has Negative Growth
Joe Kernen spoke to guests Patrick Wolff, Grandmaster Capital, and Robert Barbera, co-director of Johns Hopkins Center for Financial Economics on CNBC yesterday. The discussion surrounded the economic conditions in China and prospects for growth in that region.
Wolff said the base case scenario in China over the next few years would be a severe recession and a financial crisis. “The bear case is worse and then you get massive capital flight and political instability,” Wolff added.
Wolff said it is unclear how the problems in China would effect world economies, however, it would be bad for a lot of emerging markets. Wolff said he doesn’t know how fast China is growing, or if it is growing at all, and the Chinese premier even stated he doesn’t believe the GDP numbers being reported.
Robert Barbera stated, “if you take the top 10 trading partners with China and you add up their exports to China, you’ve got data that the Chinese government doesn’t get to put their hands on.” Barbera added, “if you look at that data, what you’ve actually got is about minus 4 percent year-over-year.”
SMA Comment: It wouldn’t be the first time investors have been duped by a huge fraud in the past 15 years.