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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to rising...
- Posted March 30, 2021
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ViacomCBS Re-initiated
About five weeks ago the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted March 26, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, warned...
- Posted March 18, 2021
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Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
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- Posted March 5, 2021
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
Gold and silver mining stocks, along with precious metals prices,...
- Posted March 3, 2021
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ViacomCBS Sold
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- Posted February 19, 2021
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iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
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- Posted January 20, 2021
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Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
- 0
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Predictions through 4/28/08
On April 28th, Warren Buffett stated on CNBC, “I’m amazed we haven’t seen more inflationary effect so far in the CPI when you consider what steel is doing, what oil is doing, what grains are doing, there is a lot potential inflation down the road.” Buffett added, “I think we are in a recession.” Buffett later continued, “This is not a field of specialty for me, but my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think…this will not be short and shallow.”
On April 26th, Gary Kaltbaum, Investor’s Edge, via Fox Business News recommended Yum Brands (YUM, 41.05) “the stock just broke out and has held up great in a real treacherous market and just broke out to new highs, I think its going much higher from here,” “Global is very, very strong.” Kaltbaum also said to buy the dollar via the PowerShares U. S. Dollar index (UUP, 22.71), which he believed would be up 20% the next 3-6 months.
On the same show Charles Payne, Wall Street Strategies, touted Lockheed Martin (LMT, 107.63) “the world is a dangerous place,” “we need to keep a strong military.” Payne also thought Sandisk (SNDK, 26.84) would make “a huge” move to the upside, at least 25% move from now until the end of the year since smart money is moving from commodities into tech.
Adam Lashinksy, reporter, Fortune, believes FPL Group (FPL, 66.63) is a good bet “its one of the leaders in wind energy,” “whoevers in the White House, they’re going to be pushing alternative energies….this is a relatively safe way to play it.” Lashinsky also felt the price of oil could drop from $120 to $80 a barrel by Halloween making airlines an easy trade, predicting United Airlines (UAUA, 15.21) would be up 20% in the same timeframe.
Mike Norman, Economic Contrarian Update, recommended Morgan Stanley (MS, 50.56) “the second largest investment bank,” “March 17th the fed did something revolutionary by opening up the discount window to these investment banks…totally taking liquidity risk off the table…they’re going to be able to grow earnings once again and all the financial sectors’ been beaten down tremendously.” Norman also felt the job market was coming back and picked Korn/Ferry International (KFY, 18.47) to bounce up 25% in 6 months.
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