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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
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- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Predictions – Gary B. Smith, Jeremy Siegel, Laszlo Birinyi, Joseph Battipaglia
Click on spreadsheet for larger image:

Joe Battipaglia expects the economy to have a major slowdown given his prediction of $60 oil. I agree that oil will fall substantially in price since the economy will be in major trouble which will spill over worldwide. When the Asian contagion struck in the late 90’s, oil dropped to around $10 a barrel. Oil won’t get that low, but I could see it dropping below $50 eventually.
Gary B. Smith, Lazlo Birinyi, and Jeremy Siegel are bullish and financials seem to be the sector they would place their bets on. They will be sadly disappointed because the housing depression is in the 3rd inning and won’t end for another 3-4 years.
It’s probably unwise to rely on the television and print pundits to make your important financial decisions. Part of the reason I’m posting these predictions is to demonstrate how wrong the “experts” can be. Results will be posted in the future.
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