Predictions – Byron Wien, Gary B. Smith, Ken Fisher, Pat Dorsey

By on December 1, 2007

Click on spreadsheet for larger image:

All of the predictions compiled over the latest period are bullish. It seems that just about everyone with access to the mainstream media is expecting good things for the market. Maybe this is a bad contrarian sign, but what’s posted here certainly can’t be considered a comprehensive scientific study or statistically valid sample.

Byron Wein represents the mainstream view that there will be a slowdown in economic growth, but there won’t be a recession. Ken Fisher thinks the high returns in the market experienced since the spring of 2003 will continue indefinitely. I don’t believe this will be the case, but only time will tell. Gary B. Smith is pretty good at making short term predictions and we’ll find out shortly if the recovery he sees will continue. The last week of November was a good start. Pat Dorsey expects the market to appreciate 3M more in the future in that their current problems relate to one product area; flat panel displays.

2 Comments

  1. Dr. Peter Vakeman

    December 1, 2007 at 7:13 pm

    You state in your header that your ten year return is for period ending 03/31/2002. Did you mean 2007? If not, what is your 10 year return ending in 2007? And please include an
    estimate of commissions and slippage
    so that it’s a comparable comparison.
    Thank You.

  2. stocksystm

    December 5, 2007 at 6:57 pm

    The header correctly shows returns through March 2002. I just haven’t updated it.

    The average annual return for the 10 year period ending 11/30/07 is 9.7% for the aggressive portfolio and 10.9% for the conservative portfolio. The returns were obtained in an actual brokerage account so the calculations take into account slippage from commissions.

    The S&P500 average annual return for the same period was 6.1% and the Vanguard® Total International Stock Index Fund had an average annual return of 9.8%.

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