Predictions & Results – Bob Froehlich, Charles Biderman, Harry Dent

By on August 15, 2007

Click on spreadsheet for larger image.
 

 

 

 

This is the first report of many to come on the outcome of the experts past predictions. As we can see Harry Dent was wildly bullish, and although he got the direction correct, the market was nowhere nearly as strong as he predicted. He did temper the prediction later and we’ll see if the revised forecast is any more accurate.

Charles Biderman of Trimtabs was also very bullish in 2006, but far too much so. I recently read that Biderman was still bullish and he didn’t believe the current setback would last long.

Dr. Bob Froehlich was also exceedingly bullish in 2006 and should be considered wrong even though the market had a pretty good year.

The current situation looks very precarious, much more so than the 1998 episode (LTCM and Russian Ruble crisis) that the pundits are comparing it to. I believe we have entered a bear market and will be in recession soon. The Fed will be cutting interest rates aggressively in the next 6 months in an attempt to save the butts of the overleveraged. The U.S. is still a huge driver in the world market so a slowdown of the consumer here will have a major impact worldwide. There will no hiding places in international equity markets.

 

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