Predictions 3/15/08

By on March 15, 2008

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Jim Rogers, on CNBC Europe, did not have kind words for Ben Bernanke regarding the bail-out and money printing mentality exhibited thus far. He said the Fed should be abolished and Bernanke should resign. Rogers continued to recommend agricultural commodities which can be purchased via PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) and ELEMENTS Linked to the Rogers I (AMEX: RJA). He also advised investing in several foreign currencies including the Renminbi, Yen and Swiss Franc. Rogers continued to recommend shorting the investment banks if they rallied. After this interview, Bear Stearns virtually collapsed and of course, on cue, the Fed came to the rescue. A classic Rogers’ comment, “What is Bernanke going to do? Get in his helicopter and fly around the world and collect rents? That’s absurd.” The interview, which is quite entertaining, can be viewed at the following link:

Byron Wein, now believes we are in a recession in contrast to the view he expressed in November 2007 when he stated, “I don’t think we’re in a bear market…I don’t think we’ll have a recession. There will be a recovery before the end of the year.” Wein does see a light at the end of the tunnel and believes the market will bottom before the summer.

My View:

Anyone who thinks they can call a bottom to this bear is sadly mistaken. It is possible this could go on for a long time because the whole credit crunch mess is tied to the housing market. There won’t be stabilization in the credit markets until housing prices stop descending. Housing cycles are long and unpredictable which makes forecasting an end to the writedowns and the beginning of a new bull market a losers’ game.

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