Prediction Results: Bob Olstein, Eric Bolling, Gary B. Smith, and Jim Rogers

By on September 27, 2009

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Results from predictions made 18 months ago indicate, once again, it’s hit and miss with “the experts,” but mostly miss. Maybe the recession has something to do with it, or perhaps it’s just more evidence that no one can foretell the future and it’s a waste of time listening to these guys.

Bob Olstein’s pick of 30 to 40 percent growth for Macy’s when it was at $22.53 was, of course, completely opposite of what actually occurred. Although to be fair, if you were nimble, you could have sold M for $26 a few weeks after Olstein’s call and made about 20%. However, if you’d held on, you’d have endured a gut-wrenching fall to $5 at the depth of the market crash. Macy’s has since recovered to $17.79.

Eric Bolling thought gold was a good bet when it was near its high last year. Gold fluctuated over the rest of year, but the fluctuations were skewed to the downside.

Again, you would have had to be nimble to profit from Gary B. Smith’s advice. RSU just did hit his target of a 20% gain several weeks after his prediction, but it was a complete disaster after that. This can actually be considered a win for the hapless one.

Jim Rogers’ penchant for commodities was not on the mark this time, as agricultural commodity prices tanked along with the world economy. Maybe you can still make a fortune in this area, but from Rogers’ vantage point in March 2008, it’s likely to be a very miniature one. Rogers bet against the dollar was mildly successful, but against the equity market’s losses it looks better in comparison. Rogers struck gold with his bet against the big investment banks as BSC and LEH went “bye bye,” and the devil Goldman’s price collapsed, only to recover later.

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