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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
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ViacomCBS Re-initiated
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
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- Posted March 18, 2021
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Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
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ViacomCBS Sold
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iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
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Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Prediction Results
Periodically I go back and look at some of the predictions made the pundits about the economy, stock market and individual securities. It adds a little accountability because anyone can made a prediction, but rarely does anyone go back and look at how accurate they were.
Pat Dorsey of Morningstar made the following comment about Countrywide Financial on August 11, 2007, “Countrywide Financial (CFC; 27.86) is a buy”, “trading at 4 times earnings power”, and, “will do great over the next year or two.” Most of us know that Countrywide nearly collapsed before Bank of America agreed to take it over in what amounted to an offer of around $7 a share at the time the deal was announced. A decline in BofA stock made the deal worth substantially less to CFC shareholders by the time it closed.
On August 21, 2007, Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners, said a 25% drop for the market was not, “out of the question.” The Dow was at 13,090 when he made this comment and a 25% drop would put it at 9,817. The DJIA has since dropped as much as 16% from the 13K level to 10.9K on July 15, 2008. A continued drop below 10,000 does not appear to be that much of a stretch from here.
On August 22, 2007, with the Dow at 13,236, Richard Russell reportedly said the following, “What did I think of today’s action? Here’s what I thought of it…I bought DIAMONDS Trust (DIA: 133.12) which is an ETF for the Dow. That should answer your question.” Mr. Russell has flip-flopped a few times since then and I believe he is now bearish.
Gary Shilling made the following comments on August 22, 2007, “I think a recession could hit before the end of the year…30 year treasuries will eventually go to 3%.” “a combination of the weak economy, a Fed ease, and deflation.” Mr. Shilling may have been pre-mature in predicting a recession as we have not technically achieved negative two quarters of negative growth, however, there has been definite weakness in the overall economy. A 3% yield on the 30 year treasuries seems to be a stretch from here since they are still priced for a return of more than 4%.
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