Peter Schiff Lays Odds of Recession at 100%

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While Peter Schiff, CEO & chief global strategist, Euro Pacific Capital, is certain we are already in a recession or very close to being in one, other forecasting methodologies are uncertain.

For example, the Philly Fed indicator, which provided a horrible reading last week, has given six false indications of recession since 1990.

Bank of America’s probability model, which uses a Bayesian technique, “tests if the economy is in a recession based on the interaction of variables that are associated with turns in the business cycle.” This methodology rates the chance of a recession at an uncomfortably high 80%.

Of course, we have Nouriel Roubini who keeps raising the odds weekly showing he is paying attention to current news and events. Roubini thinks there is a better than 50% chance of the U. S. economy recording two quarters of negative growth (the definition of recession).

Source: CNBC

In this recent video (August 19th), Schiff characterizes the U. S. economy as sick:

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2 Comments

1. 

   Amanda Faulk

   August 29, 2011 at 1:37 pm

   Roubini says there is a 50/50 chance of a recession…. but there’s is only a 10% chance of that.

   Reply
2. 

   Lou Skuntz

   August 30, 2011 at 12:46 pm

   Naked Gun, right?

   Reply