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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
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Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
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- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Performance Review: One Year, Five Year, and 10 Year Comparisons
The performance of the Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Portfolio was particularly fortuitous in 2011 as the investment returns trumped the indexes and the vast majority of professional money managers.
This sort of outperformance is probably achievable only once every 10 years. It can largely by attributed to luck with a small dose of experience/skill, and the unusual efficacy of the Tactical Timing System.
The successful timing signals added about four percentage points to the return. There were four timing signals generated in the past year as shown below:
A review of the holdings in the portfolio sheds some light on the surprising superiority of the SMA Portfolio which outperformed the S&P 500 by a factor of nearly five (10.04% versus 2.11%).
Outside of the bond holdings there were 11 positions held for the entire year (see below). Of these, Pfizer was the strongest contributor with a total return (including dividends) of 27.5%. Marathon Oil, which split into two companies, was a close second at 25%. Other top performers included Exxon Mobil (18.7%) and Wal-Mart (13.1%).
It would nice to replicate this outperformance every year, but that, I guarantee you, is highly improbable given the tendency of markets to revert to the mean. However, it appears that high-quality U. S. large-cap equities have been gaining momentum. The SMA portfolio has a substantial tilt towards this sector which may allow it to generate good relative performance in the coming months.
For historical reference, last year’s performance was sub-par in absolute terms (link), but was good on a risk-adjusted basis, given the portfolio’s heavy concentration in short-term bonds.
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