Past Predictions with Results

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Overall, the results from various predictions made by the “experts” over the past year are not very encouraging as to their expertise. There were one and 1/2 good calls made out of these five. The rabid Tobin Smith was correctly bullish last year, but overly so. Elaine Garzarelli made a good call about the S&P 500 making an all-time high when it was about 13% below that mark. Gary Kaltbaum made a pre-mature bullish call on oil. If he had extended his timeframe he would have been right. Maybe he’ll learn to give himself more leeway, because a 25% move in 90 days is a very low probability event. Lazlo Birinyi made a 50/50 call about a year ago. The housing half was just a disaster, while the oil driller prediction was extremely good. Ken Fisher, who has had a reputation for being right this decade, made a horrible prediction on the resurgence of the housing stocks back in February. This might be the worst prediction of the year because he made it near the top of a counter-trend rally.

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