Fox Business New’s Charles Payne laid out the bullish case for agriculture stocks. Payne specifically recommended Mosaic (MOS), producer of phosphate and potash based fertilizer. According to Payne, Mosaic gave an update on their guidance and things are looking much better at the top end of their range. They had a strong early spring season [...]
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alan greenspan barrons bear market ben bernanke bloomberg bond market bull market byron wien china cnbc commodities david rosenberg deflation doug kass economy emerging markets federal reserve gary b smith gary shilling gold harry dent hedge funds housing market index funds inflation interest rates interview jeremy grantham jim rogers ken fisher marc faber mark hulbert nouriel roubini oil peter schiff recession robert shiller s&p 500 sma comment stock market stock picks Tactical Timing System wall street wall street journal warren buffettT.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Recent Readings
Date....... Index
5/18/12......5.8
3/16/12......2.7
10/3/11......8.5
3/9/09........7.0 (Market bottom)
10/27/08.....8.8 (Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks)
10/12/07.....3.2 (Market top)
Year-to-Date Performance as of May 18, 2012
SMA Portfolio.......+3.0%
S&P 500 Index......+3.9%
Small Cap Index....+2.2%
Total U. S. Index...+3.8%
Int'l Index............-1.6%
SMA Portfolio Holdings/Allocation %
ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd (ASA) 1.2%
BT Group PLC (BT) 1.9%
Exxon Mobil (XOM) 2.8%
iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index ETF (PFF) 3.5%
Marathon Oil (MRO) 1.4%
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 1.0%
Morgan Stanley Emerging Market Debt Fund (MSD) 6.9%
Nautilus Inc. (NLS) 1.1%
Pepsico (PEP) 2.8%
Pfizer (PFE) 3.4%
Rayonier Inc. (RYN) 4.2%
SPDR DJ Wilshire Int'l Real Estate ETF (RWX) 3.0%
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corp Bond ETF (VCIT) 14.5%
Vanguard Short-Term Corp Bond ETF (VCSH) 30.0%
Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) 15.6%
Weyerhaeuser (WY) 2.4%
WisdomTree Emerging Mkts Hi Yld ETF (DEM) 3.4%
Cash 0.8%
Disclaimer: It is very difficult to outperform a buy and hold strategy. Many investors have found themselves best served over long time horizons by investing regularly in a diversified portfolio of stocks or low cost, broadly diversified indexed stock funds. Information presented is based on analysis of past data and assessments by the Tactical Timing System model. Future performance may not reflect past performance. Profitable trades are not guaranteed. No system or methodology ensures stock market profits. Although accuracy is strived for, no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy of data presented. Nothing presented here should be considered investment advice, but merely the humble opinion of the author.
Burton Malkiel Defends the Efficient Market Hypothesis
April 13, 2012CNBC’s Steve Liesman interviewed Princeton University economist Burton Malkiel, author of the excellent book A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Completely Revised and Updated) this morning. Liesman brought up criticism of the idea of the efficient market because the perception during the financial crisis of 2008 was that markets [...]