Mark Leibovit’s Analysis of Average Election Year Performance

By on March 5, 2012

Mark Leibovit - VRTrader.comMark Leibovit, of VRTrader.com, was featured as the “Market Monitor” on the most recent Nightly Business Report. Leibovit expressed skeptism about the government economic data. He mentioned the unemployment figures as being suspect, or “doctored up.”

Lebovit said the Fed has been engineering the stock rally, with chairman Bernanke saying he was targeting a higher stock market. He added, “the printing presses are running 24/7.”

Leibovit continued that even though there has been no official QE3, we know it’s going on with the Fed assisting Europe. According to Leibovit the Fed is engineering the rally in the hopes stocks go higher and people get employed.

When asked why he believed the unemployment figures were doctored, Leibovit responded that years ago people who stopped looking for work were excluded from the calculation of employment numbers. Some formal and informal studies have shown the real unemployment numbers are 16-20 percent, not 8-9 percent. Leibovit indicated his conversations on the street show a different reality.

Election Year Seasonality Chart

Leibovit commented on his work studying the election cycle and this year he said we could see a pull-back either shortly or in the April-May timeframe and subsequently see a big rally into September. He said we would know in a few days how this particular cycle is playing out. Overall the models are bullish because it’s a presidential election year.

Leibovit was bullish on the stock of Smith & Wesson (SWHC) which has already rallied substantially this year. His minimum target is 7, but he said it could hit the 10-12 area. Leibovit added there has been interest in guns, protection, along with ammunition sales being up.

The interview (available below) continued with an analysis of Leibovit’s other recommendations including silver (just above its 40 week moving average; near term projection over $40), and gold which he has extremely bullish projections on (as high as $11,000 in the next 5-6 years).

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