Mark Hulbert Comments on Statistical Basis for Selling in May

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Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, was interviewed by CNBC’s Scott Wapner today regarding the validity of the “sell in May” motto.

Hulbert said the statistical evidence for selling in May was surprisingly strong, in fact, “it’s incredibly strong,” he stated.

“We all think its silly..why does the market follow a seasonal pattern?…but statisticians have looked back 108 years, as far back as stock markets exist…there was evidence of it 80 years ago,” Hulbert stated.

Wapner asked, “but how many instances, when you look back, do you have central bankers greasing the wheels of global markets?” Hulbert indicated there would have been instances in the past where central banks were easing.

Hulbert said no one knows why selling in May works, but there have been various hypotheses put forth.

Hulbert said there are certain sectors demonstrating immunity to the market weakness exhibited from May through Halloween (consumer goods, technology, financial services, and telecommunications). Some participants have used the strategy of shifting to the more stable sectors during the May through October period, Hulbert added.

A couple of months ago Hulbert said the market had never “rolled over and died” after hitting a new high following a bear market [link].

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2 Comments

1. 

   Laszlo Lowenstein

   May 9, 2013 at 5:04 pm

   Only fools would sell now with the market showing unstoppable momentum.

   Reply
2. 

   Morella

   May 10, 2013 at 4:43 pm

   Greater fools are now in charge of the stock market. Momentum has nothing to do with it. It will end soon and the fools will be crying in the end as they always do.

   Reply