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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
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Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
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ViacomCBS Sold
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
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- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Mark Hulbert: Aden Sisters Advise Selling All Equities
Mark Hulbert was interviewed on CNBC and asked to give his opinion on whether the market was close to bottoming. Hulbert mentioned the Aden sisters, who have a great track record, advised subscribers of their Aden Forecast to sell all equities; both foreign and domestic.
However, Hulbert added he hasn’t seen the level of capitulation from bullish advisors that would lead him to believe a bottom is in.
Carl Quintanilla asked Hulbert to give a prediction on the level he believed the market would reach before finding a bottom.
Hulbert would only venture to say that the actual bottom rarely occurs on the day of the panic selling, but usually happens weeks or months after the event. Hulbert mentioned a similar drop occurred in November 2008, but the bottom wasn’t registered until March 2009. He added that the actual bottom is normally uneventful.
Hulbert is waiting for short-term market timers to throw in the towel which he indicated would be a positive contrarian signal.
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