Margin Debt Near Real All-time High

By on January 2, 2014

Advisor Perspectives reports that NYSE margin debt is elevated near its real all-time high [see chart below]. The last time these peak levels were observed was in July 2007.

The chart provided at the Advisor Perspectives site shows that since 1995 such high levels of margin debt have signaled a stock market peak as measured by the S&P 500.

In January 2009, during the depths of the previous bear market, Brett Steenbarger reported a large contraction in margin debt [link].

Real NYSE Margin Debt

Source: Advisor Perspectives

3 Comments

  1. Mastrogiannini

    February 14, 2014 at 12:28 pm

    The record for this margin was likely exceeded recently and whos to say this can’t continue to increasing.

    Rates on interest must go down with store sales declining. This will please the borrowers.

  2. Henchmann99

    February 17, 2014 at 4:59 pm

    Rampant corruption in earnings statement will cause the collapse of this margin bubbles.

  3. Dude

    March 6, 2014 at 7:58 pm

    I agree with mastrogi that with interest rates at low levels margin can reach levels not seen before. Especially if brokers reduce the rates in line with the competition. If they stopped the onerous userious rates total margin could double from current levels. This would fuel the market to valuation levels last observed 1999-2000. The virtuous cycle would be pervasive and powerful and a true wealth builder.

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