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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
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ViacomCBS Re-initiated
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- Posted March 26, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, warned...
- Posted March 18, 2021
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Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF...
- Posted March 5, 2021
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
Gold and silver mining stocks, along with precious metals prices,...
- Posted March 3, 2021
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ViacomCBS Sold
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iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Marathon Oil Increased
Today’s OPEC meeting did not result in an agreement to cut production which devastated the entire energy complex. Exploration and production, MLPs and the service sector went into a freefall I’ve never seen in my lifetime. It looks like capitulation. Unfortunately, I made a big move in this sector over the past month just when its relative underperformance accelerated. Now having no cash all I can do is hope for a rebound. This doesn’t appear very likely in the near term.
The natural tendency after a big decline is to give up on a sector.
Here is some history from my personal observation and experience. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) holds 58 different positions in the strongest entities in the U. S. energy complex (Apache, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Hess, Pioneer Natural Resources, Marathon Petroleum etc.). On July 9, 2018, in another discretionary account I sold shares of XOP at $44.50, booking a nice gain. Today XOP closed at $12.91. On June 16, 2014, XOP traded at $83.30. XOP is down 85% over the past 5 1/2 years.
My point is that the energy sector is extremely volatile. In my opinion, it is too late to give up on energy. In fact, it seems to me the energy sector is the perfect contrarian play at this very moment. I recall the utilities sector was universally hated back in the fall of 2002. This was the point in which utilties began a multi-year bull market. Energy feels the same way to me now.
Disclaimer: It is very challenging to outperform a buy and hold strategy. Historically, investors have found themselves well-served over the long-term by investing regularly in a diversified portfolio of stocks or low cost, broadly diversified indexed stock funds. Information presented is based on analysis of past data and assessments by the Tactical Timing System model. Future performance may not reflect past performance. Profitable trades are not guaranteed. No system or methodology ensures stock market profits. Although accuracy is strived for, no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy of data presented.
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