John Mauldin’s Lastest View

By on August 17, 2008

John Mauldin, from his lastest Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter, expected a bear market the first half of this year but a bullish phase starting this summer. He has now tempered that forecast as follows:

“To be blunt, that optimism now seems misplaced. I think we are likely to stay in recession for perhaps the rest of the year and well into 2009 before we start a very slow recovery. It is not time to get bullish on stocks, as I have been writing for the past few months. Earnings are going to continue to come under pressure, and earnings are what drive the stock market over the long term. We could see total S&P 500 as-reported earnings drop below $50. You do the math. Even with a 20 multiple, that does not yield a pretty picture.”

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