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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
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ViacomCBS Re-initiated
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- Posted March 26, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, warned...
- Posted March 18, 2021
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Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
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ViacomCBS Sold
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iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
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- Posted January 20, 2021
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Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Jim Stack: Seven Presidential Election Years Since 1940 Have Seen Double-Digit Gains
Stack mentioned last summer’s crisis in confidence over the raising of the debt limit. This along with a decline in consumer confidence led to a market plunge, 90% of which occurred over a three week period.
According to Stack, consumer confidence has since improved and the market has rebounded with it with a surprising amount of technical strength along with strength in the macro-economic statistics.
When asked if he believed the lows which occurred around Labor Day last year would hold, Stack said he believed they would citing the market’s typical strength going into an election. He added that bear markets and recessions in an election year are a rarity. Stack said there was only one election year since 1940 that experienced a double-digit decline, which was 2008. In contrast, Stack pointed out there have been seven presidential election years which have seen double-digit gains.
Stack said if you look beyond the macro-economic factors, based on technical factors the market is on firm footing. The breadth, or advance/decline line, hit a new high ahead of the market indexes. Stack added that if you look at leadership and his special composite, or negative leadership composite that`s used to measure downside or the absence of downside leadership, a signal was triggered last week indicating an 80 percent probability the market will be higher both six and 12 months from now.
The interview continued with Stack commenting on sectors he likes in a maturing recovery and presidential election year (energy, industrials and financials), his forecast for emerging markets and expectations for GDP growth, the prospects for the tech sector, and his view of current investor sentiment and general fear which has historically signaled a preferable time to invest.
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