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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to rising...
- Posted March 30, 2021
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ViacomCBS Re-initiated
About five weeks ago the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted March 26, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, warned...
- Posted March 18, 2021
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Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF...
- Posted March 5, 2021
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
Gold and silver mining stocks, along with precious metals prices,...
- Posted March 3, 2021
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ViacomCBS Sold
On February 17, 2021, the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted February 19, 2021
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iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
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- Posted January 20, 2021
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Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
- 0
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Jim Rogers Sees Disaster Ahead
Rogers said we have substantial tax increases in store next year. He also stated we’ve had recessions every 4-6 years since the beginning of the republic. He added that next year is four to six years so we’re overdue. Rogers stated recessions have always happened and happened for different reasons.
Rogers warned about thinking it’s different this time.
When challenged whether this was a real recovery, Rogers responded that in Washington they call it a recovery. Rogers stated “The market has been going up – they (Washington) tell you the recession started in 2007 – six years from 2007 is 2013.” We’ve always had one and next time it’s going to be worse, according to Rogers.
Liz Claman asked Rogers what he was, a) doing to prepare for the recession, and b) deal with the weakness/volatility that we’ve seen. Rogers said one thing he’s noticed about the U. S. market is that everyone comes out with good news and stocks go down. He added that he’s been investing a long time and he’s noticed that when good news comes out and stocks go down something is wrong and you should be very worried.
Rogers said he doesn’t know what is wrong, but we had one of the best first quarters in history, and now good news is coming out and stocks are going down.
When asked what he was doing with his money, Rogers said he was short a few stocks around the world including in emerging markets and European stocks. He added that he’s long commodities (mainly agriculture, but has some of everything) and some currencies. He added that he owns gold and silver, but is worried about not being hedged in his gold position.
Regarding the emerging markets he was shorting, Rogers mentioned India which has a 90% debt/GDP ratio. Rogers also said he was worried about his Euro holdings.
Rogers said he believes the U. S. dollar is terribly flawed but it could go up if things go badly around the world.
Rogers predicted there would be huge problems in agriculture soon and the interview continued with his thoughts regarding this and the reasons he prefers living in Singapore.
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