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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
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- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Interview of Bill Miller and Paul McCulley Continued
Miller began discussing the notion of “risk on, risk off” which he said was misleading. He said when investors refer to risk, they really mean uncertainty. Miller compared risk to what insurance companies do which is to determine probabilities of accidents and so forth. Miller added that investors deal with the ebb and flow of uncertainty where investors don’t know what the probability of outcomes will be.
Miller said when uncertainty goes down, then the so-called ‘risk assets’ go up. Miller said a perfect example was the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) where people didn’t know what was going to happen with the bank’s ability to refinance themselves.
Miller said when the ECB gave a 3 year option to the banks, it allowed them to use almost anything as collateral. This marked the bottom in the equity markets because it reduced the level of uncertainty.
Mack asked McCulley if he was aware of any uncertainties that had been eliminated. McCulley stated he thought the main uncertainties were related to central banks. McCulley said the ECB action was huge because it meant they would not allow armageddon on a 3-year year horizon.
The interview continued with discussions surrounding the Federal Reserve and the one big investment they find appropriate in the current environment and why.
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