Doug Kass Thinks Housing May Recover First
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Doug Kass was on CNBC with Larry Kudlow today and commented that falling gas prices were a positive for the economy, but the benefits were being “trumped” by falling real estate and equity values. Kass also mentioned that housing might begin recovering toward the end of 2009 since the production of homes had dropped to a very low level.
Mr. Kass has been much more accurate than the average forecaster over the past 1 1/2 years.
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |