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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
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Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
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- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Doug Kass: Market Could Be Making High for the Year Currently
One of the most important negatives, according to Kass, is that fiscal and monetary policy is unsustainable and diminishing in strength. The country is running trillions of dollars in deficits while maintaining zero interest rates, he added.
The eventual reversal of these policies will result in slower growth, rising rates and less attractive valuations, Kass said. Monetary policy is effectively shooting blanks and fiscal policy, in reaction to the bulging deficits will become a drag, he added.
In addition, Kass said the consumer is “beaten up” with incomes not keeping up with the necessities of life. He also mentioned the housing market drop and the renewal of the payroll tax to bolster his thesis. This was manifested in the recent drop in consumer confidence, according to Kass.
Kass calculates the S&P 500’s fair value is 6-7% below where it is currently. The interview continued with Kass commenting on what would change his forecast, the cliffs he sees ahead (earnings), and his end of year target (S&P 500 at 1425).
Earlier this month, Kass shared his suprise predictions for the coming year [link].
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