Demographics Don’t Bode Well For the Economy

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The 45 to 54 year old age group is considered by some, including David Rosenberg and Harry Dent, as a driver of economic growth.

The 45- to 54-year-old demographic expanded as a group every year from 1984 to 2010, writes Rosenberg, citing demographic data from Harry Dent, whom he cites as “one of the world’s most widely read demographers.”

Over that 26 years, the stock market advanced 240%.

Starting next year, the age group will contract, according to various statistics, says Rosenberg, and will keep shrinking through 2021.

The last time that group contracted, observes Rosenberg, was in 1975 to 1983, which was “an awful time for both the economy and stocks,” as the S&P 500 was “flat as a pancake and real per capita income barely expanded.”

Source: Barron’s
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