Don't Miss
Latest News
-
iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to rising...
- Posted March 30, 2021
- 0
-
ViacomCBS Re-initiated
About five weeks ago the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted March 26, 2021
- 0
-
Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, warned...
- Posted March 18, 2021
- 0
-
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF...
- Posted March 5, 2021
- 0
-
Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
Gold and silver mining stocks, along with precious metals prices,...
- Posted March 3, 2021
- 0
-
ViacomCBS Sold
On February 17, 2021, the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted February 19, 2021
- 0
-
iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
Investor euphoria/greed has been elevated with the extension of the...
- Posted January 20, 2021
- 0
Don't Miss Out On These Free Updates!
Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
-
iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
- 0
-
Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
- 0
-
Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
- 12
-
Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
- 8
-
Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
- 7
T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
David Herro Sees Opportunities in European Financials and Japan
Specifically, Herro commented on one of the most hated sectors, European financials, which he doesn’t believe will be “trashed for generations,” despite the problems they are encountering currently. The fear in the market provides opportunities which is the essence of value investing, according to Herro.
Herro referred to Credit Suisse (CS) which he said is more of an investment management company that has, attached to it, an investment bank. CS gets treated as if it were a lending institution that collects deposits and its very different than that, he added. CS is trading at lows we haven’t even seen during the financial crisis despite their extremely strong capital position.
Herro commented on Banco Santander (STD), “whose crime is that it’s based in Spain.” However, less that 20% of its profits and probably less than 35-40% of its loan book is based in Spain according to Herro. He added STD has operations in the U. S., Brazil, Mexico and UK.
Herro stated that CS and STD share characteristics such as strong balance sheets, good deposit structures, or some unique business attribute that will keep them valuable when the negative cycle clears up.
Bloomberg’s Betty Liu introduced a clip from a radio interview where Pat Dorsey of Sanibel Captiva Trust Company questioned the idea of investing in European banks when there are so many other opportunities available. Herro responded that each of the banks are very different and he would probably agree with Dorsey regarding Socgen and Deutsche Bank (DB). But Herro said to take a look at Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) based in northern Italy. Northern Italy is characterized by a very high savings rate, stable asset quality, very low cost ratios, etc. He said you can get this at 1/2 book value and during normal times they trade at over one times book value. When the storm clears you’ll double or triple your money in some instances, according to Herro.
The interview continued with Herro commenting on the importance of being selective, the biggest opportunity outside of European financials (Japan), and the reasons investors shouldn’t focus on where a company is located.
Related Posts