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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Dan Sullivan Hasn’t Bought Into This Market Yet
Dan Sullivan, editor of The Chartist, believes the market has been under persistent accumulation but his models (obviously momentum-based) have not given an all-clear buy signal.
SMA Comment: There are many out there like Sullivan who have failed to pull the trigger and get back into the market. It is for this reason the market will likely end the year marginally higher than it is currently. The weakening dollar will provide some impetus to the upside. However, at some point the dollar weakness will cause trouble (i.e., higher oil prices sending up prices at the pump and hurting the consumer).
The election cycle just turned positive, however, substantial governmental fiscal stimulus and bailout money was squandered in the first couple of years of Obama’s presidency, therefore, the normally strong two year period preceding the next presidential election will likely be muted.
Source: Moneyshow.com
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