Charles Nenner and Cycle Analysis: China is Bottoming Now
David Pett of the Regina Leader-Post has covered the reasoning behind the cycle research of Charles Nenner and included his latest outlook. Pett said Nenner’s best prediction this year was likely his call in early September that Apple would top out at $710 a share. AAPL reached $705 and has recently plunged beneath $550.
Regarding the influence of news on cycles David Gurwitz, the managing director of Charles Nenner research said, “The news will reinforce the cycle, but the cycle was all set in motion years ago.” He added, “We don’t know what the news will be, but if there is a cycle top, the news will be perceived negatively. If there is a cycle bottom, the news will be perceived positively.”
Pett clarifies further:
A cycle is determined by analyzing a data series of trends that are then combined in aggregate using mathematical models. Predictable cycles require enough data to work with and upwards of 30 different sets of data can be analyzed for any one asset or index.
Nenner is looking for a bottom in India’s market later this year and would go long in 2013. He sees China bottoming now so he is buying that market. The cycle for the bond market is down, according to Nenner.
Back in July, Nenner had his doubts the S&P 500 would breach 1400, while he was becoming quite negative on the outlook for fixed income, specifically Treasuries [link].
Read more: Leader-Post