Charles Nenner and Cycle Analysis: China is Bottoming Now

By on November 8, 2012

Charles Nenner - Research InstituteDavid Pett of the Regina Leader-Post has covered the reasoning behind the cycle research of Charles Nenner and included his latest outlook. Pett said Nenner’s best prediction this year was likely his call in early September that Apple would top out at $710 a share. AAPL reached $705 and has recently plunged beneath $550.

Regarding the influence of news on cycles David Gurwitz, the managing director of Charles Nenner research said, “The news will reinforce the cycle, but the cycle was all set in motion years ago.” He added, “We don’t know what the news will be, but if there is a cycle top, the news will be perceived negatively. If there is a cycle bottom, the news will be perceived positively.”

Pett clarifies further:

A cycle is determined by analyzing a data series of trends that are then combined in aggregate using mathematical models. Predictable cycles require enough data to work with and upwards of 30 different sets of data can be analyzed for any one asset or index.

Nenner is looking for a bottom in India’s market later this year and would go long in 2013. He sees China bottoming now so he is buying that market. The cycle for the bond market is down, according to Nenner.

Back in July, Nenner had his doubts the S&P 500 would breach 1400, while he was becoming quite negative on the outlook for fixed income, specifically Treasuries [link].

Read more: Leader-Post

3 Comments

  1. Mike Clemson

    November 11, 2012 at 1:20 am

    I’ve followed Nenner’s cycles for two years on my site. It appears as though he is not as bearish as once was about “Dow 5000.” For 2013, he’s looking for a range bound market rather than a collapse.

  2. uffizi

    November 18, 2012 at 5:35 am

    may I ask for the 2 years that you have follow Charles Nenner’s cycle. how accurate do you find his forecast?

  3. Barron Maestro

    November 20, 2012 at 2:30 pm

    Nenner is not perfect, but he seems more accurate than most I follow. He makes some short term, along with longer term predictions. Back in March of this year he predicted the S&P 500 would top out at 1450-1500, which could have happened in this cycle as it exceeded 1450 in September. However, he backed off this prediction in July when he said he didn’t think the S&P 500 would penetrate 1400.

    Some of his longer term predictions have yet to bear fruit. Back in early 2011 he predicted the Dow would fall to 5,000 in two to three years. He still has some time on that one, but it will take a quick and brutal bear market for him to be right. He also predicted the bond market would top out around September of this year. Bonds were certainly at a high level that month, but they haven’t seriously broken down to indicate a change of trend, so that one is still also pending.

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