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  • The Cure Might be Worse Than the Disease
  • Ameritrade and Onerous Reorganization Fees
  • Markets Unraveling
  • The End of the SMA Portfolio
  • Value Investor Bill Nygren’s Ideas
  • Warren Buffett Buying Stocks

    Warren Buffett, without a doubt the world’s most famous investor, said he is buying...

    • Posted October 17, 2008
    • 0
  • Fear Index Hits All-Time High

    The Tactical Timing System Fear Index reached a peak of 10 today; the highest...

    • Posted October 17, 2008
    • 0
  • Stocks May Not Be Ready to Climb

    *** In a N.Y. Times article, Mark Hulbert indicates that sentiment looks good (weak),...

    • Posted August 4, 2008
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  • Jim Cramer Says Market Has Bottomed

    *** On July 30th, with the Dow standing at 11,583, Jim Cramer said the...

    • Posted August 2, 2008
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  • Newsletter Writers Most Bearish Since 1995

    CNBC just reported that 50% of financial newsletter writers are bearish which is the...

    • Posted July 30, 2008
    • 0
  • Prudent to Reduce Exposure to Equities

    Originally published in July 1999: INDEXES ON 7/1/99 DJIA 11,066.42 S&P 500 1,380.96 NASDAQ...

    • Posted October 18, 2006
    • 0
  • Market Sentiment’s Worth as a Directional Indicator

    Originally published in December 1998: INDEXES ON 11/30/98 DJIA 9,116.55 S&P 500 1,163.63 NASDAQ...

    • Posted October 1, 2006
    • 0
  • Dangerous Bullishness

    Originally published on: February 9, 1997 Investment newsletters are for the most part worthless....

    • Posted May 25, 2006
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  • Shift in Sentiment

    This newsletter mentions Jim Rogers who was carping about inflation way back in 1996....

    • Posted May 3, 2006
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Latest News

  • iShares Global REIT ETF Sold

    Investor euphoria/greed has been elevated with the extension of the...

    • January 20, 2021
    • 0
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index Shows Negative Sentiment

    The Fed raised interest rates 1/4 point yesterday. This...

    • December 20, 2018
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  • Bullish Jeffrey Saut Sees Stock Market Transitioning

    This morning Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut told CNBC viewers...

    • August 11, 2016
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  • Investor Sentiment at 7 Year Low

    Global stock markets have been swooning for nearly nine months....

    • February 15, 2016
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  • Tobias Levkovich Discusses Benefits to the Economy of the Oil Crash

    Tobias Levkovich, Chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup, was on...

    • January 26, 2016
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  • REET
    iShares Global REIT ETF Sold

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    • January 20, 2021
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  • Speculation
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  • Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy

    Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...

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  • Interfacesao says:

    XVII century was Nicholas Jarry [fr]....

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    books in ancient times was papyrus...

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    I had the same experience twice this year wit...

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T.T.S. Fear Index

Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear): Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date Index  SMA Comment
1/20/2021 2.3 Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear
3/23/2020 7.0 Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011
12/26/2019 2.3 Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018)
12/21/2018 6.7 Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity
1/11/2018 1.8 Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations
1/13/16 6.3 Terrible start to 2016 raised fears
10/3/11 8.5 A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense
3/9/09 7.0 Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh
10/27/08  8.8 Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers
10/12/07  3.2 Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked

Year-to-Date Performance as of January 15, 2021

Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio YTD %
SMA Portfolio 8.5%
S&P 500 1.1%
U. S. Small Caps 6.9%
Total U. S. Stock Market  2.1%
Total Int'l Stock Market 4.4%
Total U. S. Bond Market -1.1%

Recent Comments

  • Interfacesao on Jeff Gundlach: “The Situation has Changed”
  • Sanderhrs on Jeff Gundlach: “The Situation has Changed”
  • TC on Ameritrade and Onerous Reorganization Fees
  • Jay on Ameritrade and Onerous Reorganization Fees
  • Montresor on International Seaways Added

Disclaimer: It is very difficult to outperform a buy and hold strategy. Many investors have found themselves best served over long time horizons by investing regularly in a diversified portfolio of stocks or low cost, broadly diversified indexed stock funds. Information presented is based on analysis of past data and assessments by the Tactical Timing System model. Future performance may not reflect past performance. Profitable trades are not guaranteed. No system or methodology ensures stock market profits. Although accuracy is strived for, no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy of data presented. Nothing presented here should be considered investment advice, but merely the humble opinion of the author.

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