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  • The Cure Might be Worse Than the Disease
  • Ameritrade and Onerous Reorganization Fees
  • Markets Unraveling
  • The End of the SMA Portfolio
  • Value Investor Bill Nygren’s Ideas
  • Warren Buffett, "Worst Investment You Can Have is Cash"

    Warren Buffett has been on many CNBC segments over the past several days and...

    • Posted November 14, 2009
    • 0
  • William Bernstein Figures That Competent Investors are Rare

    William Bernstein, who maintains the website Efficient Frontier, has written many interesting articles over...

    • Posted October 23, 2009
    • 0
  • Differences Between the iShares and Vanguard Emerging Markets ETFs

    The emerging markets have been one of the hottest performing sectors so far this...

    • Posted October 15, 2009
    • 0
  • In Defense of UNG and Other ETFs

    Dave Nadig at IndexUniverse.com rants about the uproar over several ETFs including U. S....

    • Posted August 22, 2009
    • 0
  • Burton Malkiel Believes in the Thesis of the Random Walk More Than Ever

    Burton Malkiel was interviewed by Forbes magazine recently and said most of his money...

    • Posted July 7, 2009
    • 0
  • It’s Difficult to Beat the Index Fund

    Mark Hulbert reports at the New York Times that a new study by Mark...

    • Posted February 24, 2009
    • 0
  • The Good from a Bear Market

    Originally published in January 2002: INDEXES ON 12/31/01 DJIA 10,021.50 S&P 500 1,148.08 NASDAQ...

    • Posted December 22, 2006
    • 0
  • S&P 500 Index Stomps Active Managers

    Originally published in June 1998: The market’s advance has weakened significantly in all but...

    • Posted September 15, 2006
    • 0
  • Great Book

    Originally published in May 1998: Stocks have gotten way ahead of the fundamentals (earnings,...

    • Posted September 15, 2006
    • 0
  • Lessons From the Investing Legends

    Originally published in February 1998: The market continues to digest the news of Asia...

    • Posted August 18, 2006
    • 0
Page 5 of 6123456

Latest News

  • Going Off the Rails

    Today I made wholesale changes to the SMA Portfolio; now...

    • March 23, 2020
    • 1
  • The End of the SMA Portfolio

    It's hard to do this, but this brutal blitz krieg...

    • March 17, 2020
    • 0
  • SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF Allocation Increased

    Today's widespread sell-off allowed an opportunity to increase the position...

    • August 14, 2019
    • 0
  • A Value Investor’s Potential Opportunity in Country ETFs

    A couple of weeks ago financial writer Brett Arends wrote...

    • February 25, 2014
    • 1
  • Rob Arnott Still Has Faith Emerging Markets Will Deliver For Investors

    Emerging markets have generated dismal returns year-to-date; especially relative to...

    • July 22, 2013
    • 0

Don't Miss Out On These Free Updates!


Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates

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  • Silver Mining ETF
    iShares Silver Mining ETF Increased

    With interest rates creeping up and the US Dollar...

    • January 12, 2021
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  • ishares silver mining etf
    iShares Silver Miners ETF Added

    The iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (SLVP) was...

    • December 21, 2020
    • 0
  • Molson Coors TAP
    Molson Coors Added

    Investors continue to pile into high-flying technology shares and...

    • October 1, 2020
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  • Speculation
    Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?

    PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...

    • April 25, 2013
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  • S&P 500 2013 1987 Blowoff Buying Climax
    Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013

    Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...

    • May 22, 2013
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  • Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy

    Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...

    • March 4, 2010
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  • Interfacesao says:

    XVII century was Nicholas Jarry [fr]....

  • Sanderhrs says:

    books in ancient times was papyrus...

  • TC says:

    I had the same experience twice this year wit...

  • Jay says:

    Same just happened to me. 7/23/2020. So the...

  • Montresor says:

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335176-buoy...

T.T.S. Fear Index

Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear): Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date Index  SMA Comment
1/8/2021 2.7 Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear
3/23/2020 7.0 Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since March 2009
12/26/2019 2.3 Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018)
12/21/2018 6.7 Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity
1/11/2018 1.8 Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations
1/13/16 6.3 Terrible start to 2016 raised fears
10/3/11 8.5 A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense
3/9/09 7.0 Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh
10/27/08  8.8 Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers
10/12/07  3.2 Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked

Year-to-Date Performance as of January 15, 2021

Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio YTD %
SMA Portfolio 8.5%
S&P 500 1.1%
U. S. Small Caps 6.9%
Total U. S. Stock Market  2.1%
Total Int'l Stock Market 4.4%
Total U. S. Bond Market -1.1%

Recent Comments

  • Interfacesao on Jeff Gundlach: “The Situation has Changed”
  • Sanderhrs on Jeff Gundlach: “The Situation has Changed”
  • TC on Ameritrade and Onerous Reorganization Fees
  • Jay on Ameritrade and Onerous Reorganization Fees
  • Montresor on International Seaways Added

Disclaimer: It is very difficult to outperform a buy and hold strategy. Many investors have found themselves best served over long time horizons by investing regularly in a diversified portfolio of stocks or low cost, broadly diversified indexed stock funds. Information presented is based on analysis of past data and assessments by the Tactical Timing System model. Future performance may not reflect past performance. Profitable trades are not guaranteed. No system or methodology ensures stock market profits. Although accuracy is strived for, no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy of data presented. Nothing presented here should be considered investment advice, but merely the humble opinion of the author.

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