Calculated Risk and Doug Short Put the Rally in Perspective

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Click on graphs for larger image:

The first graph, “Four Bad Bears,” is from Doug Short of dshort.com.

The S&P 500 is up 34% from the bottom, and still off 42% from the peak.

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

The second graph from the Calculated Risk Blog shows the S&P 500 since 1990. The dashed line represents the closing price May 4, 2009. This bear market still seems too short given the excesses that were built up over the Greenspan years. It seems likely there will be significant weakness into the August through October timeframe.

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