Byron Wien was on CNBC today providing his outlook and surprise predictions for 2012. According to host Bill Griffeth, Wien got 8 out of 10 predictions correct in 2011 (link).
Wien was too optimistic on the stock market (S&P 500) which he saw rising to 1,500 and too pessimistic on the 10-year government bond (yield above 5%).
For the coming year, Wien expects oil prices to decline to $85 a barrel given his view that new production of fossil fuels from shale and rock will increase supply which he referred to as a “game changer.”
Wien predicts the S&P 500 will surpass 1,400, while real GDP will exceed 3 percent, and unemployment will drop below 8 percent.
The rest of Wien’s 2012 surprise predictions are available in the following video: