Don't Miss
Latest News
-
iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to rising...
- Posted March 30, 2021
- 0
-
ViacomCBS Re-initiated
About five weeks ago the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted March 26, 2021
- 0
-
Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, warned...
- Posted March 18, 2021
- 0
-
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF...
- Posted March 5, 2021
- 0
-
Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
Gold and silver mining stocks, along with precious metals prices,...
- Posted March 3, 2021
- 0
-
ViacomCBS Sold
On February 17, 2021, the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted February 19, 2021
- 0
-
iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
Investor euphoria/greed has been elevated with the extension of the...
- Posted January 20, 2021
- 0
Don't Miss Out On These Free Updates!
Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
-
iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
- 0
-
Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
- 0
-
Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
- 12
-
Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
- 8
-
Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
- 7
T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Buy Signal
The Tactical Timing System generated a buy signal at the close today.
To comply with the system the following positions will be purchased tomorrow at market or purchase will be attempted with limit orders:
Aggressive Portfolio:
Security (Symbol, Order Type, Price) Approximate Allocation
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV, Market, 51.71) 6.0%
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU, Market, 42.31) 5.0%
Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO, Market, 33.25) 4.0%
Conservative Portfolio:
Security (Symbol, Order Type, Price) Approximate Allocation
Cohen & Steers REIT & Utility Income Fund (RTU, Limit, 14.15) 6.1%
Harvest Energy Trust (HTE, Limit, 17.36) 3.3%
———————————
Target Allocations:
Aggressive Portfolio:
120% equities; -20% cash
Conservative Portfolio:
75% equities; 25% fixed income
———————————
Commentary: The outlook for the economy appears bleak which has been reflected in the prices of equities worldwide. There will be no decoupling as the entire world slows down and perhaps enters a serious recession. Fear has replaced greed as financial concerns face the most grave crisis of our generation. It seems very improbable that the calamity caused by falling housing prices will not result in economic weakness in all areas of the economy. Many investors are frozen by indecision as stock prices crater, but it appears this a juncture where increased allocation towards equities will result in rewards down the road. However, this outcome is far from assured.
Disclaimer: It is challenging to outperform a buy and hold strategy. Many investors have found themselves well-served over long time horizons by investing regularly in a diversified portfolio of stocks or low cost, broadly diversified indexed stock funds. Information presented is based on analysis of past data and assessments by the Tactical Timing System model. Future performance may not reflect past performance. Profitable trades are not guaranteed. No system or methodology ensures stock market profits. Although accuracy is strived for, no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy of data presented.
Related Posts