Buy Signal

By on June 20, 2008

The Tactical Timing System generated a buy signal today. To comply with the system the following positions were purchased:

Aggressive Portfolio:

Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL, 35.49)

Whirlpool (WHR, 66.08)

Note: For some reason my broker canceled the ability to margin my account (perhaps due to the credit crunch!). Therefore, I will have to wait until Monday to purchase three additional securities as required by the system.

Conservative Portfolio:

Bank of America (BAC, 27.26)

CBS (CBS,20.01)

New Zealand Telecom (NZT, 14.21)

Pfizer (PFE, 17.39)

Weyerhaueser (WY, 52.86)

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Target Allocations:

Aggressive Portfolio: 105% equities; -5% cash

Conservative Portfolio: 60% equities; 40% fixed income
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Commentary: Many market pundits have been proclaiming that the credit crisis is over or near its end. But what if it is just getting started? Housing still has further to correct to the downside, so it is impossible to determine when the writedowns will end. Equities, in this atmosphere, are becoming more reasonably priced, but could be headed for even more reasonable prices. My intuition tells me that the DJIA will bottom between 10,000 and 11,000 since this would retrace 1/2 of the bull market move since 2002.

Disclaimer: It is very difficult to outperform a buy and hold strategy. Many investors have found themselves best served over long time horizons by investing regularly in a diversified portfolio of stocks or low cost, broadly diversified indexed stock funds. Information presented is based on analysis of past data and assessments by the Tactical Timing System model. Future performance may not reflect past performance. Profitable trades are not guaranteed. No system or methodology ensures stock market profits. Although accuracy is strived for, no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy of data presented.

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