Bull Market is Getting Long in the Tooth

By on January 11, 2014

This week The Short Side of Long blog illustrates how the current bull market, which happens to be aging quite nicely, compares to the bull markets over the past 80 years.

The chart below shows that our current bull market, at 252 weeks of age, is one of the longest of the 16 identified. Also, today’s bull market is nearly 100 weeks longer than the average. If it continues for 11 more weeks it will be the second longest in the post-depression era.

This data should serve as a warning to those contemplating an increase in their equity allocation, since attitudes towards risk become skewed and imbalances tend to develop (see recent margin debt numbers) whenever a bull market continues unabated; especially when accompanied by low volatility.

Bull Market Length

Source: The Short Side of Long

3 Comments

  1. Mikey Likes Everything

    February 1, 2014 at 6:07 pm

    “Bull markets tend to have a maximum shelf life of five years. We’re getting awfully close to that,” Art Cashin

  2. Chuck Saint

    February 6, 2014 at 4:53 pm

    Art Cashin exceeded his shelf life about 10 years ago. The man is a walking, talking gin bottle.

  3. Walter Heisenberg

    February 10, 2014 at 3:53 pm

    With no gdp growth, but continued unrealized high hopes, this market can go for the gold and set a new longetivity record. The odds are good.

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