Alan Greenspan: U. S. Economy May Be Heading for a Double Dip

By on August 5, 2010

Jeremy Warner at cautions that Alan Greenspan appears to have taken to heart the old adage that “if you can’t forecast well, forecast often”.

Now he [Greenspan] says we are in a pause in a modest recovery, “but a pause in a modest recovery feels like a quasi-recession”. I shouldn’t mock, for my own forecasting record is if anything even worse, but in March 2007, Mr Greenspan said there was only a one third chance of a recession, only to raise this to a greater than 50pc chance in May 2008.

Starting to get it right, then? Unfortunately he then spoilt this rare insight into the blindingly obvious by saying that prospects of a severe recession had receded markedly. As we know, the worst recession since the Great Depression followed soon afterwards.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>