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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to rising...
- Posted March 30, 2021
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ViacomCBS Re-initiated
About five weeks ago the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted March 26, 2021
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Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, warned...
- Posted March 18, 2021
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Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Allocation Reduced
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF...
- Posted March 5, 2021
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Gold and Silver Mining ETFs Allocation Increased
Gold and silver mining stocks, along with precious metals prices,...
- Posted March 3, 2021
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ViacomCBS Sold
On February 17, 2021, the entire position of ViacomCBS (VIAC)...
- Posted February 19, 2021
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iShares Global REIT ETF Sold
Investor euphoria/greed has been elevated with the extension of the...
- Posted January 20, 2021
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Indexes, Currencies, Commodities & Rates
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iShares Silver Mining ETF Allocation Increased
The price of silver has been declining due to...
- March 30, 2021
- 0
-
Rich Bernstein Negative on Tech as Rates Rise
Rich Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors,...
- March 18, 2021
- 0
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Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Crisis?
PBS Frontline recently presented a documentary called “The Retirement...
- April 25, 2013
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Alarming Chart of the Stock Markets of 1987 and 2012-2013
Several days ago I posted a chart showing the...
- May 22, 2013
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Bill Ackman Thinks Diversification is for the Lazy
Bill Ackman made a speech at the Active/Passive Investor...
- March 4, 2010
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T.T.S. Fear Index
Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Current and Selected Past Readings:
Date | Index | SMA Comment |
1/20/2021 | 2.3 | Massive stimulus and Fed support have nearly eliminated fear |
3/23/2020 | 7.0 | Coronavirus and oil price war panic investors to the highest level of fear since October 2011 |
12/26/2019 | 2.3 | Lowest level of fear in nearly two years (January 2018) |
12/21/2018 | 6.7 | Raised fears likely setting up a buying opportunity |
1/11/2018 | 1.8 | Unusually low fear could mean we're near the top in valuations |
1/13/16 | 6.3 | Terrible start to 2016 raised fears |
10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble pricked |
Year-to-Date Performance as of February 24, 2021
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
SMA Portfolio | 18.7% |
S&P 500 | 4.8% |
U. S. Small Caps | 12.2% |
Total U. S. Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total Int'l Stock Market | 6.0% |
Total U. S. Bond Market | -2.4% |
Alan Greenspan: Equity Premium at Highest Level in 50 Years
Greenspan spoke further about the “fiscal cliff” America faces referring to it as huge. He said the problem is no one wants to inflict pain on anyone under any circumstances (something he has personal experience with).
Greenspan’s view that a bond crisis would be constructive for Washington, even while it would be destructive to our retirement plans and New York, was discussed. Greenspan said he didn’t consider the bond market a speculative boom. He harkened back to 1979 which he recalled vividly the 10-year note yielding 10% while people were saying rates couldn’t go higher; they went up 400 basis points after that.
Greenspan said he was certain interest rates would rise over the next 10 years. However, he warned that markets don’t behave in the simple way we’d like them to behave so he believes the rise in rates could happen suddenly as opposed to gradually.
Greenspan said stocks are very cheap and all you have to do to determine this is to look at the equity premium. He considers JPMorgan’s estimate of the equity premium to be best and pointed out it’s at the highest level in 50 years.
The interview continued with Greenspan discussing the importance of equities to the economy and financial system, his opinion on reflation, the tough issues involved in pulling back austerity measures in Europe, the ultimate triggering of inflation due to monetary easing, the continuing challenges in merging eastern and western Europe which continue to this day, his view on what is wrong with the U. S. economy, his opinion on attempts to support markets (they don’t work), his defense for not raising rates from 2003-2005 which he claims was not instrumental in causing the housing boom, and his opinion on gold as a currency.
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