Based on a scale of 1 (major complacency) to 10 (extreme fear):
Recent Readings:
| Date | Index | SMA Comment |
| 5/17/13 | 2.7 | Calls for the bull market's demise have been premature |
| 3/14/13 | 2.3 | Peak of optimism in this cycle |
| 9/14/12 | 2.7 | S&P 500 hit 1,465; a high that lasted 4 months |
| 10/3/11 | 8.5 | A good tradable bottom (S&P 500 @ 1,085) based on lots of nonsense |
| 3/9/09 | 7.0 | Market bottom (S&P 500 @ 666); end of the world was nigh |
| 10/27/08 | 8.8 | Market had dropped 28% in 5 weeks, Paulson pulled out all stops to save Wall Street bankers |
| 10/12/07 | 3.2 | Market top (S&P 500 @ 1,562); worldwide housing bubble starting to be pricked |
Stock Market Advantage (SMA) Porfolio Versus Major Indices
| Index/Portfolio | YTD % |
| SMA Portfolio | +5.9% |
| S&P 500 | +17.9% |
| U. S. Small Caps | +19.0% |
| Total U. S. Stock Market | +18.1% |
| Total International Stock Market | +7.9% |
| Security | Symbol | Allocation |
| ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd | ASA | 0.7% |
| iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index ETF | PFF | 3.3% |
| Marathon Oil | MRO | 1.5% |
| Morgan Stanley Emerging Market Debt Fund | MSD | 6.4% |
| Nautilus Inc. | NLS | 1.7% |
| Pepsico | PEP | 3.1% |
| Pfizer | PFE | 2.9% |
| Rayonier Inc. | RYN | 3.2% |
| Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corp Bond ETF | VCIT | 13.4% |
| Vanguard Short-Term Corp Bond ETF | VCSH | 26.8% |
| Vanguard Total Bond ETF | BND | 13.8% |
| WisdomTree Emerging Mkts High Yield ETF | DEM | 3.0% |
| Cash | 20.3% |
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Disclaimer: It is very difficult to outperform a buy and hold strategy. Many investors have found themselves best served over long time horizons by investing regularly in a diversified portfolio of stocks or low cost, broadly diversified indexed stock funds. Information presented is based on analysis of past data and assessments by the Tactical Timing System model. Future performance may not reflect past performance. Profitable trades are not guaranteed. No system or methodology ensures stock market profits. Although accuracy is strived for, no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy of data presented. Nothing presented here should be considered investment advice, but merely the humble opinion of the author.
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Top Three Stock Picks (August 2012 Edition)
An ongoing addition to this website will be my three favorite stocks (or ETFs) to be updated on a monthly basis. I screen for stocks meeting certain criteria on a regular basis and occasionally find, what I consider, overlooked bargains. The names chosen may be mainstream, or could be off ...